WASHINGTON :The World Bank has issued a stark warning that global energy prices are set to climb by 24 percent in 2026 as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt oil supplies, according to a report released today.
The Bank projects that Brent crude oil will average $86 per barrel in 2026, a sharp increase from $69 per barrel in 2025. The forecast comes as repeated attacks on energy facilities and shipping disruptions in the strategic Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained oil flows.
Even if the current high-level tensions in the region subside by May, the World Bank report cautions that prices are likely to continue rising significantly. However, the outlook could worsen considerably if hostilities intensify and supply disruptions persist.
“Further damage to major oil and gas facilities, combined with an inability to restore trade, could drive Brent prices even higher than currently projected,” the report warns.
In a more optimistic scenario, the World Bank notes that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could gradually return to pre-conflict levels by October. The strait is a critical chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of global petroleum passes.
Energy markets remain on edge as geopolitical risks show no immediate signs of easing. Analysts say any escalation in the coming months would amplify price pressures just as global demand continues to recover.
