The strategic future of Balochistan

The strategic future of Balochistan
By: Abdullah Khan

As someone who has spent years analyzing regional dynamics, I firmly believe that Balochistan holds a unique and powerful position in the global geopolitical chessboard. It is not just a province of Pakistan—it is a gateway—a corridor through which history, trade, and superpower rivalries intersect.

Balochistan’s location is of immense strategic value. During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, the USSR aimed to access warm waters through this region. Today, that same geopolitical pull still exists. With a vast coastline stretching far beyond Sindh, and multiple ports—Gwadar, Jiwani, Pasni—Balochistan stands as a key node in any regional connectivity project.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the biggest examples of this importance. Gwadar is not just a port; it is the entry and exit point for a new regional order. China’s investment here has naturally attracted the attention—and concern—of its geopolitical rivals like India, the United States, and several European countries.

But history reminds us: Balochistan has always been caught in great power games. In the Cold War era, we saw how Russia and its allies funded insurgencies here, pushing a communist ideology that still lingers in the literature and beliefs of some militant groups. The BLA and others carry ideological remnants of that past, even as the world has moved on.

Now, as China arrives with investment and infrastructure, the same old strategy is repeating—this time with new players. Efforts are underway to paint China as a colonial force, which I find deeply ironic. Unlike Western powers, China has never colonized any country. It brings economic cooperation, not occupation. Just look at Africa, where China has built roads, railways, and industries, leaving behind progress, not puppets.

Unfortunately, instead of benefiting from this strategic positioning, Balochistan has suffered. Just as Pakistan’s broader geopolitical importance brought it wars, not wealth, Balochistan too has borne the brunt of proxy conflicts and foreign interference. From the Soviet war to the U.S.-led war on terror, the province has been used, not empowered.

I fear that the situation in Iran may spill over into Balochistan. Many separatist outfits have links or safe havens across the border. If Iran destabilizes further, these groups could intensify their activities. And if Iranian forces are focused on dealing with U.S. and Israeli threats, Pakistan’s concerns may go unheard. Lawlessness knows no borders.

There are ideological and operational links between Baloch and Kurdish separatist groups, both of whom have been used as pawns in wider power struggles. The maps of “Greater Balochistan” and “Greater Kurdistan” that circulate online are not organic—they are part of a broader destabilization campaign. I’ve seen these tactics before. They serve the interests of foreign powers, not the people on the ground.

Let me be clear: multiple international actors have stakes in Balochistan—China, Iran, Pakistan, India, the U.S., Israel, and the EU. But only one player, in my view, offers mutual prosperity rather than manipulation—and that is China.

Yes, CPEC is designed to benefit China, but that does not mean it cannot benefit Balochistan too. Roads, ports, and infrastructure cannot be uprooted and flown away. They stay. They create jobs. They connect markets. But only if the government of Pakistan and the provincial administration ensure that the local population is trained, educated, and empowered to participate.

To the youth of Balochistan, I say this: study China’s engagement in Africa. See the schools, hospitals, and businesses built, not under the barrel of a gun, but through mutual agreement. Compare that with the Western legacy of conflict, extraction, and abandonment. Ask yourself: Who truly offers you a future?

Separatist leaders rarely speak of British or American colonialism. Their silence is telling. Instead, they parrot narratives that seek to turn you against the only real opportunity for economic transformation you’ve had in decades. China is not perfect, but it is offering Balochistan a stake in the future, not just slogans from the past.

This is not the time to become pawns in someone else’s geopolitical game. It is time for Balochistan to play its own move boldly and wisely. Aligning with Pakistan and China is not submission; it is strategy. It is choosing development over division, trade over turmoil, and progress over propaganda.

I believe the future of Balochistan lies not in rebellion, but in regional integration. And I believe the people of Balochistan are smart enough to see through the noise, to seize the opportunity that history has once again placed at their doorstep.

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